Analyst on-chain: next fall may be the last time Bitcoin falls below $10,000

Analyst on-chain: next fall may be the last time Bitcoin falls below $10,000

The Bitcoin price (BTC) is consolidating below USD 9,200, which has acted as a key support level since the end of May. According to Cole Garner, if BTC falls to the $7,000 level, it may be the last fall below $10,000 in the long run.

Data analyst on-chain Garner said:

„Technically we’re still in bullish market territory. A fall below the VWAP [the green level] is a juicy buying opportunity. It could be the last BTFD below USD 10k. Forever.

Why are traders generally pessimistic about the short-term trend of Bitcoin?

As Cointelegraph reported earlier, analysts are cautious about Bitcoin due to four main factors. These are increased selling pressure from miners, uncertainty in the stock market, consolidation at a pivotal price, and decreased volatility.

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However, the miners who are selling a lot of Bitcoin are not new, because they have been selling most of what they mine daily since the halving on May 11.

But, the massive sale of miners coincides with other worrisome factors, such as CME’s Bitcoin market that is distinctly short. It suggests that professional traders are anticipating a temporary setback at BTC.

Garner explained:

„And the CME commitment from traders shows that institutions are massively shorting BTC, and have been for many weeks. They’ve only been this short once before: the last time BTC was around the same price.

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Bitcoin’s option market data supports this narrative. On June 26, the Bitcoin options market experienced its highest expiration ever with options worth $675 million. However, BTC’s price did not portray a large increase in volatility, indicating that most options occurred when BTC was in a narrow range between $9,000 and $10,000.

Currently, the Bitcoin Rush option market is generally neutral on a net basis, while the WEC futures market remains short on a net basis. When that is combined with the fact that the miners are selling 1,115 BTC more than they have since June 19, the trend may become grim.

So why are analysts positive about BTC’s medium-term trend?
In the long term, Garner still anticipates that a major bull market will materialize. In addition to optimistic industry developments, such as growing support from Fidelity and institutional adoption, a key macro indicator has been illuminated.

Open Interest in Bitcoin Options Sets New Record

In addition, hash ribbons, which evaluate potential phases of capitulation among miners in the cryptomint market, are signaling an upward trend. Mining capitulation usually marks a local floor for Bitcoin because over-leveraged miners and investors are eliminated. Garner pointed out:

„We’re very close to a signal to buy hash ribbons. A hash ribbon buy is one of the highest on-chain alpha signals I track. They don’t happen often, and I hope it’s the last one in a long time.

As fundamentals strengthen and the mining industry finally recovers from the halving and two-year high stress adjustment, traders expect the Bitcoin price to recover along with it.